There are a lot of different things which go into discussing Movie Pass/HMNY, and I think it should be simple indeed. You must begin with deciding on what value to allocate to Movie Pass. You can choose any number of ways to do it. Current value per Subscriber vs expected growth. Risk-Adjusted Earnings. Etc. Etc. But it doesn’t matter because who knows.
So, pick a number. 10M? 50M? 100M? 200M? 500M? Whatever the number, is your best guess valuation.
The problem is that it just begins to clarify a picture. We are talking about the future, where it succeeds. So, you really must believe, the Company will succeed. If you don’t just short the stock, why even bother. If you do think it will succeed though and you have a number in mind, think about another number: the ultimate number of shares the Company currently intends to go to, which is 5B.
You can continue to imagine that the Company will succeed but it doesn’t matter does it? What matters is if you will succeed with it. Will you? Does the Company give any indication that they care? Let’s complete the math.
Let’s say you believe that the value of the Company is 500M. The fair value of each share (without adjusting for bankruptcy risk) is 10 cents per share. You can reverse split it some 1000 times over, and the market will value each share less than 10 cents in the most optimistic days with 5B shares in mind. Have you seen any responsible person from HMNY/MP say they intend to reduce the number of shares from 5B to 25M (as per the RS)? If not that every time, there is a reverse split the price will ultimately fall below 10 cents. More so in each RS because your current investors will keep getting more and more negative after losing money.
Why keep that number of shares? Because MP needs money? Raise at 25M shares worth $20-30 each. Why raise 5B @ pennies while completely wiping out current investors? There is no business model which indicates MP needs more than 1.2B in investment over the next 12-18 months. Why do they burn their investors? Because they don’t care? All the public comments from CEOs have been fighting against investors. Fight against the shorts, idiots!!!
The market is not stupid, and it will give fair value based on their plans. And their methods may be useful for the Company but have not an ounce of thought for their investors. Even if the investors stick with them to become the next Uber/Amazon, they will have pennies to show for it. As it stands, HMNY will need to be valued at 48 Trillion for the original investors to break even!!! At 25M shares, it would still be a high 250B, but maybe in 10 years, they can achieve it!!! That’s how venture capitalists invest? The problem it seems is MP is still trying to find VC money. They believe they will either get it or get a buyout.
There is no world in which this CEO can realistically say he will pay back the investors. His venture can succeed but not his investors. And that’s not the kind of message people will intend to fund for long.
Thanks for stoping by i was the fake ceo by the way lol